While getting relegated is never, ever a good thing Blues have made the best out of a bad situation. Although Blues aren’t quite top of the pile a win tonight against Crawley will change that with the added luxury of games in hand against our title rivals.
Yet even though the squad is looking pretty good, I know that fans will always be looking to see if it’s possible to improve it. We’ve seen how quickly a few injuries can mount up and despite having a fairly chunky first team squad there is often a feeling another player won’t hurt.
I’ve put together this article to talk about where Blues are and what might happen.
The Status Quo
Right now, it’s hard to pick fault with the business Blues did in the summer. While it’s true not every player has made a huge impact, I don’t think any have proved to be an instant dud and that has helped to ensure that the squad has stayed fairly well balanced.
Normally, to discuss where we are I’d link the squad list as submitted to the EFL in September but I’m not going to do that this year.
The reason for this is that I’m confident that the squad list published by the EFL is outdated and as such is of no use.
The EFL version of the squad list shows Tyler Roberts as still on the books of Blues, which cannot be true as he has made 16 league appearances for Northampton Town this season.
Any player over the age of 21 must be included within a squad list to be able to play matches for their club, which means that either someone has severely messed with the rules in allowing Roberts to play for the Cobblers, or more likely the squad lists are incorrect.
I’ve tried my best to keep my own spreadsheet up to date – which is viewable at this link.
As per my list, I have a total of 20 players currently included on Blues squad list, working on the assumption that Alfie Chang was not included.
Goalkeepers Ryan Allsop and Bailey Peacock-Farrell do not need to be included in that list, as does any player born after January 1, 2003.
This means as it stands Blues can add two further overage players to their list, whether they be new signings or returning loan players who were born before the cutoff date.
Blues also currently have four players on loan: Ben Davies, Taylor Gardner-Hickman, Luke Harris and Alfons Sampsted. While Blues can sign as many loan players as they want, only five can be in the matchday squad.
Furthermore, only four can be from one club, of which two at most can be over 23.
This means that in practical terms Blues have one loan slot left unless they choose to convert one of the current loan players they have on the books to be a permanent signing.
The upshot of all this is that while Blues do have a fairly large first team squad, there actually remains room to bring in more players should they want to from a squad size regulations standpoint.
However, as we all know, transfers are all about the folding stuff – and financial rules are what Blues have to consider before splashing the cash.
The Financial State of Play
Being in League One makes this a little bit more difficult for me to write about, as I believe we have to consider not only the Salary Cost Management Protocol (SCMP) rules for this year, but also how signings would affect us under Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) for next season should we be promoted.
This is doubly complicated as the EFL have recently released updated SCMP rules to take effect next season, with updated PSR rules potentially to follow.
Although I feel it’s potentially pride before a fall, for the purpose of this article I’m not going to consider SCMP for next season because I want to work on the supposition Blues are successful in getting promoted this season.
Should that not happen, there will be an article looking into that further as well as eating a huge slice of crow.
It’s also difficult to understand exactly how owner equity injections made this season will affect us next season with regards to PSR rules, so I’m going to put my faith in Tom Wagner and Knighthead’s accountants knowledge of what they’re doing and assume that everything is okay there too.
One might think that Blues have only a little room to play with this window, especially bearing in mind the costs that Blues allegedly paid for players this summer which seem to go up every week on social media.
I can’t claim to have complete inside knowledge on exactly how much Blues paid (or for that matter received) for players in the summer but based on conversations I have had with high placed sources at the club I believe that most of the transfer fees quoted this summer in the media were at worst headline fees which included all contingency payments, if not complete hyperbole.
With this in mind I spent a little bit of time roughing out some calculations with regards to amortisation of fees and the upshot of that is I that I think Blues actually come out fairly even from a transfer fee point of view.
Obviously wages are a different thing altogether, but on that front I’m mindful of two things.
Firstly, from the historic paperwork in my possession I know that Blues have frequently structured player contracts so that the basic wages a player receives is contingent on the league the club are playing in.
This means that wages being paid to players now might not be anything like as high as they would be in the Championship, allowing Blues to keep within budgetary constraints with more ease this year.
Secondly, from conversations I’ve had with sources at the club there has been a firm line that Blues just aren’t offering silly money any more. The way it was put to me is that The Project™ is a really big draw and has seen players willing to accept less than they would have before to come play for us.
Thus the upshot of all this is that there may be some money to play with this window – particularly if players leave.
Ins and Outs
Before I go anywhere with this section, I want to make it clear that transfer rumours are the spawn of the devil and should always be taken with a huge pinch of salt – including anything I say in this article.
I do my best to source information from multiple sources but it’s easy for things to change quickly and I’ve been known to be horrifically wrong more than once.
For me, the big thing this winter is going to be about players who might leave.
As it stands at the time of writing I’ve heard strong rumours about potential departures for two players – Dion Sanderson and Romelle Donovan.
I kinda feel for Sanderson because this summer looked to be his redemption arc after a rough end to last season that included an arrest for drink driving In April.
However, right now it’s difficult to see a way back into the side for him. The last time I saw him play in the flesh was the Northampton game and I’ll hold my hands up and say that I instantly blamed him for Blues conceding late on.
That may have been unfair but it does feel like he’s fallen from favour and I think a move on would probably be best for both parties.
Romelle Donovan is even more difficult to write about. Rumours have swirled regarding his early return from loan at Burton Albion and after a summer where it looked for a while the young talent might depart I have the distinct feeling this winter could be the time he gets a move.
There has also been rumours about the potential signing of German centre-half Phil Neumann from Hannover 96 in Germany – which would make particular sense if Sanderson is indeed moved on.
However, I don’t think the deal is as done as has been made out in the press, and I certainly don’t think the financial figures mentioned are accurate. I’m sure Blues have an interest, but like any good player other clubs will also be sniffing around and the challenge will be for Blues to complete the deal.
One thing I think we can expect for sure this winter is that Blues won’t take any gambles on signings. Deficiencies in fitness or character won’t be accepted as a risk any longer due to the security Blues now have financially.
No doubt the next month will have a few surprises in store for us, but I want to emphasise that for the first time in a long time Blues are in a carefree position.
If that means Blues don’t sign anyone this window, it shouldn’t be seen as a failure – more a case that Blues didn’t think anyone of sufficient quality was available at the right price.